Chinese AI researchers are becoming increasingly pessimistic about catching up to the U.S. in artificial intelligence. They cite a significant chip shortage stemming from U.S. restrictions, which prevents them from accessing advanced hardware like Nvidia's latest products. This gap may be widening rather than closing, despite some progress in specific areas.

Nvidia has requested TSMC to ramp up production of its H200 AI chips to meet high demand from Chinese companies, which have ordered over 2 million chips for 2026. Despite regulatory hurdles, Nvidia anticipates significant revenue growth if it can fulfill these orders.

Top Chinese companies like Alibaba and ByteDance are training their AI models in Southeast Asia to access Nvidia chips, circumventing U.S. restrictions. This shift follows the U.S. ban on certain chip sales, prompting a rise in offshore training efforts. DeepSeek is an exception, training its model domestically while collaborating with Huawei on new AI chips.

The U.S. government has announced new restrictions on the export of artificial intelligence chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD to China, aiming to hinder the country's advancements in AI technology. This move reflects a broader strategy by the Trump administration to combat China's growing capabilities in the tech sector.

Nvidia is working on a new AI chip built on its Blackwell architecture, aimed at outperforming its current H20 model available in China. Although U.S. President Trump has hinted at the possibility of allowing the sale of more advanced chips to China, regulatory approval remains uncertain due to security concerns. Samples of the new chip are expected to be delivered to Chinese clients as early as next month.