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Taiwan's opposition party is negotiating a deal with Xi Jinping to abandon independence claims and stop military preparations, betting that accommodation with China is safer than relying on an unpredictable Trump administration that's stretched thin by the Iran war and skeptical of defending distant allies.
- Taiwan's Nationalist Party, which controls Parliament, is blocking defense spending and has signaled willingness to accept Chinese sovereignty in exchange for preserved elections and autonomy, modeled loosely on Hong Kong's arrangement before Beijing dismantled its democracy.
- Trump has publicly questioned the value of defending Taiwan, called weapons sales a "negotiating chip" rather than a strategic commitment, and praised Xi as a friend—signaling the U.S. may not intervene if China moves militarily.
- A Chinese invasion would likely succeed within weeks without sustained U.S. resupply; early losses would exceed 20 years of Iraq-Afghanistan casualties, and the blockade would wipe trillions from global markets, yet Taiwan's population increasingly sees resistance as futile.