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Ripple proposed acquiring Circle, the issuer of USDC, for $4 billion to $5 billion, but Circle deemed the offer insufficient and rejected it. This development highlights ongoing dynamics in the stablecoin market and Ripple's strategic interests.
Tether's launch of the USAT stablecoin aims to establish a compliant presence in the U.S. market, posing a direct threat to Circle's USDC. The move emphasizes a shift towards regulatory compliance in stablecoins, raising concerns over privacy versus oversight in the crypto space.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has declared that "covered" stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC, are not classified as securities. Consequently, individuals involved in minting or redeeming these stablecoins do not need to register their transactions with the SEC. This decision aligns with increasing regulatory clarity and legislative efforts surrounding stablecoin use in the U.S.
Circle's recent S-1 filing reveals its reliance on interest income from USDC reserves, which has made it profitable but exposes structural vulnerabilities, including overdependence on high interest rates and limited revenue diversification. As the stablecoin market evolves, Circle faces challenges from emerging competitors and changing market dynamics that could threaten its long-term sustainability.
Coinbase, in collaboration with Mercuryo, has lowered on-ramping fees for USDC users on its Base platform, providing a discount aimed at MetaMask users. This announcement follows Circle's plans to develop a stablecoin-native Layer 1 blockchain utilizing USDC as its gas token.
Liquidity concerns are rising ahead of the Jackson Hole conference, with ETF outflows impacting BTC and ETH markets. Circle's new Gateway technology aims to make USDC chain-agnostic, enhancing transfer efficiency and reducing operational costs for exchanges and DeFi applications.
FIS has partnered with Circle to enable financial institutions to transact using USDC, the leading regulated stablecoin. This collaboration integrates Circle's stablecoin functionality with FIS's Money Movement Hub, allowing for efficient domestic and cross-border payments while supporting the evolving landscape of digital assets in finance.
Shopify is set to roll out stablecoin payments using USDC to its merchants later this year, marking its largest move into the cryptocurrency space. The integration, developed in collaboration with Coinbase and Stripe, aims to streamline payments for online retailers by allowing faster transactions and reduced fees. Merchants will have the option to accept USDC payments automatically, with incentives like cash back for those who do.
Mizuho analysts predict shrinking margins for Circle's USDC following Coinbase's Q2 earnings, estimating Circle earned $625 million in total interest income. The analysts highlight increased distribution costs and new partnerships, including with Binance, as factors leading to a bearish outlook for Circle's stock.
Bernstein analysts predict that USDC's supply will increase from $76 billion to $220 billion by the end of 2027, capturing one-third of the stablecoin market. Key factors driving this growth include Circle's regulatory compliance, partnerships with major exchanges, and the recent implementation of the GENIUS Act, which favors U.S.-based stablecoin issuers.