The S&P 500 rebounded from a 10% drop to a new high in just 11 sessions, marking the quickest V-shaped recovery on record. Big investors warn valuations look stretched, but higher cash supplies and record corporate profits may justify today’s lofty multiples. Meanwhile, semiconductors and AI infrastructure lead gains while software lags, and social media use has peaked globally except in North America.

• S&P 500 recovered from a 10% Iran-conflict drop to a new all-time high in just 11 trading sessions—the fastest V-shaped recovery ever.
• Buffett (sitting on $373B cash) and Paul Tudor Jones (citing a 252% market cap-to-GDP ratio vs. 170% in 2000) both warn valuations are stretched, with PTJ predicting a reversion could erase 30-35% of market value.
• Swollen money supply (M2 up ~30% in five years, $8T in money market funds, $6.7T Fed balance sheet) partly explains lofty multiples, while record corporate profit margins offer a counterargument.
• AI-cycle gains are concentrated in chips/infrastructure (NVIDIA, hyperscalers) while software valuations lag, echoing the chips-then-devices-then-apps pattern of the post-GFC mobile boom.