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The S&P 500 rebounded from a 10% drop to a new high in just 11 sessions, marking the quickest V-shaped recovery on record. Big investors warn valuations look stretched, but higher cash supplies and record corporate profits may justify today’s lofty multiples. Meanwhile, semiconductors and AI infrastructure lead gains while software lags, and social media use has peaked globally except in North America.
- S&P 500 recovered from a 10% Iran-conflict drop to a new all-time high in just 11 trading sessions—the fastest V-shaped recovery ever.
- Buffett (sitting on $373B cash) and Paul Tudor Jones (citing a 252% market cap-to-GDP ratio vs. 170% in 2000) both warn valuations are stretched, with PTJ predicting a reversion could erase 30-35% of market value.
- Swollen money supply (M2 up ~30% in five years, $8T in money market funds, $6.7T Fed balance sheet) partly explains lofty multiples, while record corporate profit margins offer a counterargument.
- AI-cycle gains are concentrated in chips/infrastructure (NVIDIA, hyperscalers) while software valuations lag, echoing the chips-then-devices-then-apps pattern of the post-GFC mobile boom.
The post highlights the ongoing shortage of RAM memory modules in the tech supply chain. It points to production bottlenecks and high demand that keep prices elevated and inventory low.
- The only substantive content available is a single tweet stating "This is why we still have a ram crisis btw," with no supporting article text provided.
- No specific data, names, or figures about RAM shortages, pricing, or supply chain bottlenecks are present in the material given.
ASML’s extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines cost around $400 million each and are essential for printing advanced semiconductor chips. Rick Lenssen led a project to recreate the intricate EUV tool as a detailed LEGO set, creating one of the world’s most sought-after toys.
- Rick Lenssen's team spent two years turning ASML's $400 million EUV lithography machine into a 2,636-piece, 35 cm Lego set with rotating mirrors and a detachable control panel.
- Lego capped the public release at 46,061 kits, which sold out in minutes at €239 and now resell for over €1,500—the only time Lego has ever limited a set's production this way.
- The toy's popularity underscores how rare and complex the real machines are: only ASML makes them, each needing thousands of specialized parts from dozens of suppliers to produce the chips in phones, cars, and data centers.
TSMC expects a 50% jump in net profit to T$542.6 billion for Q1, driven by booming demand for its 3-nanometre AI chips and advanced packaging technology. First-quarter revenue rose 35% year-on-year, underscoring capacity constraints as Nvidia and Apple ramp up orders. The company will outline Q2 guidance and capital spending plans on its April 13 earnings call.
- TSMC expects Q1 net profit to jump ~50% to NT$542.6 billion, a fourth straight record quarter, fueled by 3nm AI chip and advanced packaging demand outstripping capacity.
- Q1 revenue rose 35% year-on-year, and Macquarie forecasts even stronger Q2 growth on sustained AI demand.
- TSMC's market value has hit ~$1.6 trillion, nearly double Samsung's, with shares up 28% this year versus a 22% rise in Taiwan's broader market.
- Investors are watching whether TSMC will maintain or raise its $165 billion 2026 capex plan (including Arizona fabs) amid geopolitical risks to helium/neon supply, though diversified sourcing should limit near-term impact.
Intel is collaborating with Elon Musk's Terafab project to build a semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas. This initiative aims to produce a terawatt of computing power annually for AI systems, supporting advancements in robotics and autonomous vehicles. Intel's participation also strengthens its foundry business in the growing AI market.
- Intel is partnering with Elon Musk's Terafab initiative (alongside SpaceX and Tesla) to build a semiconductor fab in Texas.
- The project targets one terawatt of annual computing power for AI, satellite operations, and space-based data centers.
- Intel is contributing chip design, fabrication, and packaging expertise to help meet Terafab's production goals.
- The deal boosts Intel's foundry business by landing a major client in the AI infrastructure market, while lending credibility to Terafab given the high costs of building advanced fabs.