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This article discusses Hyperstition Markets, a new type of prediction market that encourages participants to actively shape desired outcomes through coordinated actions. It explores the mechanics, potential applications, and ethical concerns associated with using these markets to influence social realities.
The article discusses the rise of prediction markets in the U.S., exemplified by Polymarket, and how major media outlets are incorporating these gambling odds into their reporting. It highlights the potential erosion of trust in journalism as these markets blur the line between information and speculation. Concerns about insider betting and the integrity of public discourse are also raised.
Polymarket has received approval from the CFTC to reopen its prediction-market platform in the U.S. This allows users to trade contracts through regulated brokers, following a previous shutdown due to regulatory issues. The platform must now adhere to strict compliance measures, including enhanced surveillance and reporting.
This article discusses the rise of prediction markets, highlighting key players like Polymarket and Kalshi. It explores how these markets are shifting from simple betting to financial instruments, the regulatory landscape, and their potential integration with decentralized finance.
The CFTC has approved Gemini's Designated Contract Market license, enabling the launch of a prediction market and potential expansion into crypto futures and options. This approval comes as the regulatory landscape for prediction markets shifts, with increased support from current CFTC leadership.
Apex Fintech Solutions is introducing Apex Prediction Markets, a platform that allows firms to offer clients access to regulated event contract trading without needing to establish complex infrastructure. This solution simplifies the integration process and provides options for trading on various real-world outcomes, like sports and economic indicators.
The article discusses the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, highlighting their appeal to both traditional finance and tech sectors. It contrasts the formal Wall Street image with the casual style of younger entrepreneurs in the space. The piece touches on a notable meeting between industry leaders, symbolizing this convergence.
In 2025, fintech venture funding rose 25% to $55.94 billion, with prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi leading the charge. They secured $3.71 billion in funding, making them the largest US rounds of the year and among the top globally, driven by growing interest in online betting.
Coinbase is suing Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois, arguing that state regulators cannot oversee prediction markets that fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority. The lawsuits come as Coinbase prepares to launch its own prediction market platform in January 2026 through Kalshi, which is already CFTC-registered. The company claims state actions threaten its operations and violate federal law.
Rep. Ritchie Torres plans to introduce a bill that would prevent federal officials from trading on prediction markets when they have access to nonpublic information. This legislation follows a trader's $400,000 profit from betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture, raising concerns about potential insider trading in these markets.
The article outlines three key trends expected in crypto by 2026. It discusses the expansion of prediction markets, the potential for cryptographic proof in various industries, and the emergence of "staked media," which ties credibility to verifiable commitments.
Jake Nyquist outlines seven key areas for new prediction markets to compete effectively against incumbents. These include product quality, asset variety, capital efficiency, oracle reliability, liquidity provision, regulatory compliance, and strategic positioning. Each axis offers specific ways to attract users and gain market share.
Google will allow ads for prediction markets in the U.S., but only for exchanges regulated by the CFTC and certified brokers. Advertisers must adhere to strict compliance standards set by both federal regulations and Google's policies.
Coinbase is launching stock trading, prediction markets, and decentralized trading for Solana tokens as part of its strategy to become an all-in-one financial platform. Users will be able to trade stocks and crypto in a single app, with commission-free trading and plans for tokenized equities in the future.
New York Attorney General Letitia James cautions consumers against using unregulated prediction markets ahead of Super Bowl 60. She highlights the lack of consumer protections on these platforms, while companies like Kalshi assert they are regulated by the CFTC. Concerns include insider trading and the overall integrity of these betting markets.
This article examines the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users bet on various events, including political outcomes and celebrity news. As their popularity grows, concerns about gambling implications, market manipulation, and insider trading have emerged alongside significant investments and media partnerships.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong mentioned popular crypto terms during an earnings call to pay off bets on prediction markets. This move sparked criticism for potentially manipulating those markets, with industry experts questioning the ethics of such actions. Armstrong later claimed it was a spontaneous decision.
Gondor is a decentralized finance platform designed for prediction markets, allowing users to borrow against their Polymarket positions. It offers a streamlined process for leveraging tokens while ensuring users maintain control over their funds. Currently in beta, Gondor plans to introduce cross-margining capabilities in its upcoming V1 release in 2026.
The article discusses how group chats are transforming prediction markets by integrating real-time interactions and digital money. Using the Base App's Bracky agent, users can make and share predictions within their chats, making the experience social and seamless. This shift eliminates the friction of traditional prediction market platforms.
Fanatics is partnering with Crypto.com to enter the prediction markets space, with a platform expected to launch in the coming weeks. Details on its features remain unclear, and regulatory challenges could affect its availability across the U.S.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, following a previous $300 million round. The company competes with Polymarket and allows users to bet on various future events, while navigating legal challenges related to gambling regulations.
Traders bet over $59 million on whether Polymarket would launch its US platform by year's end. A soft launch led to confusion and disagreement over what constitutes a "live" event, resulting in a blockchain vote favoring a launch that some users contest. Payouts remain unresolved.
Coinbase app code reveals plans for integrated prediction markets and tokenized stock trading. Independent researcher Jane Manchun Wong uncovered this through reverse-engineering the app's code, which hints at a collaboration with Kalshi, a regulated prediction-market operator. The company has yet to confirm these features ahead of a livestream event on December 17.
Vitalik Buterin argues that the real issue in the creator economy is quality, not quantity, of content. He suggests using curated DAOs to determine valuable creators, but experts are divided on the effectiveness and potential pitfalls of this approach.
The article critiques the viability of financial superapps like Robinhood integrating prediction markets. It argues that while expanding product offerings can be tempting, it risks increasing user churn and undermining long-term value. The author emphasizes the importance of stability and trust over short-term profits.
The article critiques creator tokens, highlighting their flaws in the context of creator monetization. It argues that these tokens create parasocial dynamics and lead to unsustainable market structures, proposing Melee as a better alternative that allows creators to earn without becoming the product.
The article discusses the challenges of contract resolution in prediction markets, using examples like Venezuela's election and various market disputes. It proposes using large language models (LLMs) as neutral judges to improve accuracy, transparency, and resistance to manipulation.
The article discusses the decline of airdrops in the crypto space and highlights Kalshi and Polymarket as promising platforms for generating income through prediction markets. It emphasizes focusing on high-probability outcomes and suggests using bots for potential profit.
Coinbase is set to unveil prediction markets and tokenized equities on December 17. The launch will feature in-house developed tokenized stocks, making it a significant step for the largest US crypto exchange.
Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, accused a stock analyst of conducting an extortion plot after the analyst reported that users were losing money at a faster rate than on traditional gambling sites. Following the backlash, Kalshi retracted its statement, highlighting the tension in the growing prediction market industry.
Robinhood plans to launch a futures and derivatives exchange in 2026 after acquiring a 90% stake in LedgerX. This move follows the company’s rapid growth in prediction markets, where users traded over 9 billion contracts in a year. The exchange aims to strengthen Robinhood's position against competitors like Kalshi.
Michael Selig, the new chair of the CFTC, has introduced an innovation committee to explore regulation of prediction markets and digital assets. This move coincides with ongoing Congressional discussions about expanding the agency's authority in the crypto space, amid rising concerns over insider trading in prediction markets.
Coinbase is suing regulators in Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut over their attempts to classify prediction markets as unlicensed gambling. The exchange argues these markets are financial derivatives under federal oversight, which could pave the way for broader access if they win. The lawsuits come amid a shift towards federal regulation, following the appointment of a pro-innovation CFTC chairman.
Crypto.com is introducing a new platform called OG for prediction markets, just ahead of the Super Bowl. The move follows a significant increase in its event contracts business, which saw a 40-fold growth over the last six months. CEO Kris Marszalek believes a dedicated product is necessary to meet rising demand.
This article discusses the growth of prediction markets in 2025, highlighting the dominance of Kalshi and Polymarket, which together processed over $44 billion in trading volume. It also explores emerging competitors like DraftKings and the importance of trust and transparency in determining market success.
Polymarket is facing scrutiny for allowing betting on ongoing military conflicts, a move that many prediction-market platforms avoid. This controversial approach raises questions about legal and ethical boundaries in the prediction market space.
This article discusses the growth of prediction markets, highlighting how smaller platforms can innovate despite the dominance of established players like Polymarket and Kalshi. It predicts that by 2025, these markets will accelerate significantly, potentially becoming a trillion-dollar industry as they evolve from niche platforms to mainstream information engines.
This article critiques the current state of prediction markets, highlighting their inability to generate private, actionable insights due to open information sharing. It proposes a new model, cognitive finance, which focuses on private markets and AI-driven mechanisms to better capture and utilize valuable information.
The article discusses the developments in fintech during 2025, highlighting the emergence of Agentic Commerce, stablecoins, and prediction markets. It notes the continuing strength of traditional banks while neobanks gain traction and consumer sentiment shifts amid economic challenges.
Coinbase is launching a suite of new products to position itself as a comprehensive financial platform, incorporating stocks, prediction markets, and advanced trading tools. CEO Brian Armstrong emphasizes the importance of tokenization and the goal of democratizing access to financial markets through on-chain assets. The move aims to retain crypto users and diversify revenue streams as the market evolves.
The article discusses the limitations of current prediction markets, focusing on issues like low liquidity, insider trading risks, and the need for standardization in contracts. It explores potential paths to enhance these markets, including adopting standardized event contracts to attract institutional investors.
Polymarket has sued Massachusetts, claiming that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive authority over prediction markets, not state regulators. This lawsuit highlights growing tensions as states attempt to classify sports-related prediction contracts as gambling, which would require local licensing. Recent rulings in Massachusetts and other states have further complicated the legal landscape for prediction market operators.
This article analyzes the efficiency of prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, revealing a significant wealth transfer from impulsive bettors (takers) to liquidity providers (makers). The findings highlight a longshot bias, where takers disproportionately favor low-probability bets, leading to consistent losses compared to makers who capitalize on this trend.
Coinbase is acquiring The Clearing Company to enhance its prediction markets. This move allows users to trade on real-world events alongside other assets like crypto and equities. The acquisition aims to leverage The Clearing Company's expertise to develop a comprehensive trading platform.
This article explains the challenges of using leverage in prediction markets, particularly the risks associated with sudden price jumps. It argues for charging traders a per-epoch fee based on short-term market conditions to better manage these risks.
Daniele Sesta explains why Pandora, a decentralized prediction market platform, is built on Ethereum. He emphasizes Ethereum's stability, security, and anti-fragility, arguing that these qualities make it the best foundation for a long-term project that aims to create a credible mechanism for truth resolution.
A trader on Polymarket made a $400,000 profit by betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture shortly before the U.S. operation was announced, raising questions about potential insider trading. Experts are divided on whether the trader had access to classified information, highlighting the regulatory challenges in monitoring prediction markets compared to traditional financial markets. Concerns about political connections, particularly with the Trump administration, further complicate oversight and enforcement of insider trading rules.
Coinbase is set to expand its trading app to include tokenized stocks, derivatives, prediction markets, and other assets, aiming to create an "everything exchange" for U.S. users, with plans for international rollout. This move intensifies competition with platforms like Robinhood and aligns with recent pro-crypto regulatory changes in the U.S. as the company seeks to enhance consumer engagement and become a leading financial services app.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction markets platform, has received approval from the CFTC to operate in the United States. The ruling follows a no-action letter regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations, paving the way for Polymarket's entry after a prior federal investigation was dropped.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has secured $300 million in funding, raising its valuation to $5 billion and enabling plans for expansion into over 140 countries. The company has seen significant growth, surpassing rival Polymarket in weekly transactions, as it capitalizes on the popularity of prediction markets, particularly in sports. Meanwhile, Polymarket is preparing to re-enter the U.S. market after regulatory challenges.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is investing up to $2 billion in the crypto-based prediction marketplace Polymarket, valuing it at approximately $8 billion. This partnership aims to legitimize prediction markets and expand their reach, particularly in the U.S. market, where Polymarket has faced regulatory challenges.
Polymarket is planning to return to the U.S. after acquiring QCEX, enabling American users to trade prediction market contracts with regulatory compliance. The platform gained popularity during the 2024 presidential election but had been restricted from operating in the U.S. for several years. CEO Shayne Coplan emphasized the goal of becoming a fully regulated platform, potentially impacting the U.S. sports betting landscape.
Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, has become the youngest self-made billionaire following a $2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange at an $8 billion valuation. The platform, which allows users to wager on real-world outcomes using cryptocurrency, gained significant traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, despite facing regulatory challenges and penalties in the past. With a recent acquisition of a licensed exchange, Polymarket is now positioned as a legitimate player in the gambling and financial forecasting industries.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the prediction market at approximately $8 billion. This significant investment aims to bolster Polymarket's credibility and assist in its efforts to re-establish a presence in the U.S. market.
The NHL has entered into multiyear deals with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, marking a significant move in the sports betting landscape as these markets gain traction. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, these platforms operate legally in all 50 states, and the NHL aims to ensure game integrity through this partnership, despite concerns from industry groups about the legality and implications of such markets.
Truth Social, backed by Donald Trump's media group, has partnered with Crypto.com to introduce a new feature called "Truth Predict," allowing users to trade prediction contracts on various significant events. This move aims to democratize information and empower users in prediction markets, which are anticipated to become a substantial industry.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are revolutionizing crypto payments in fintech by providing real-time, crowd-sourced data that enhances risk management and user experiences. While they offer innovative opportunities for financial inclusivity and automation, regulatory challenges remain a significant hurdle for their growth and integration into the cryptocurrency landscape. Addressing these challenges is crucial for the sustainable development of prediction markets in the digital economy.
Prediction markets are gaining traction as a new frontier in finance, offering a platform for users to place bets on the likelihood of various events, from sports outcomes to political elections. As these markets blur the lines between gambling and investing, they provide valuable information and insights that can influence decision-making in both consumer and professional spheres. However, this rise raises concerns about potential gambling addiction and the implications of democratizing speculation.
The article discusses the potential of investing in melee markets through permissionless prediction markets that offer uncapped upside. It explores the mechanics and implications of these markets, emphasizing their accessibility and the innovative opportunities they present for investors.
Kalshi, a prediction market startup, has raised $185 million in a funding round led by notable investors, including Sequoia Capital and Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao. The funds will be used to enhance technology and integrate with more brokers, following a successful court ruling that allowed the platform to list election outcome contracts. The company is also focusing on expanding its sports-related trading options.
Polymarket is set to raise $200 million in a new funding round that will value the platform at $1 billion, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Despite facing regulatory challenges that resulted in banning US customers, Polymarket has maintained significant activity, particularly during the 2024 US presidential election, and is expanding its offerings through a partnership with Elon Musk's social network, X. The platform's cumulative betting volume is approaching $14.8 billion, with a notable decrease in user activity recently.
The article discusses the evolving landscape of prediction markets and their applications in fundraising, hiring, and marketing within various industries. It highlights notable updates and trends that are shaping the future of these markets and their potential impact on decision-making processes.
Polymarket is exploring a financing round that could value the company between $9 billion and $10 billion, while Kalshi is nearing a $5 billion valuation for its upcoming fundraising. Both prediction market platforms are experiencing increased activity, with Polymarket set to relaunch in the U.S. after receiving approval from the CFTC.
Polymarket has secured a $2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange, valuing the company at $9 billion and marking its transition into mainstream finance. The partnership aims to integrate prediction markets into traditional finance and explore tokenization initiatives, reflecting a growing interest in prediction markets among investors.
Kalshi has significantly outperformed Polymarket in the prediction market sector, capturing 62% of the total trading volume in the U.S. from September 11 to 17, with over $500 million in weekly trading volume. While Polymarket has made moves to re-enter the U.S. market by acquiring QCX and launching new markets, Kalshi's faster trading pace indicates a stronger current user engagement.
Kalshi has successfully closed a $185 million funding round as it continues to compete in the prediction market space against rival Polymarket, which is reportedly seeking $200 million in its own funding efforts. The investment will help Kalshi expand its platform and services amid growing interest in prediction markets.
Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs) have the potential to generate higher returns than directly holding tokens by growing net asset value per share through various strategies. The case study of BitMine Immersion (BMNR) illustrates how effective management and strategic treasury operations can lead to significant value creation, particularly through Ethereum investments. The article also discusses the broader implications of Ethereum's growth and the evolving landscape of prediction markets.
Kalshi has played a significant role in popularizing prediction markets, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of future events. The platform has made these markets more accessible and understandable, helping to bridge the gap between traditional finance and innovative forecasting methods. As a result, Kalshi is paving the way for mainstream adoption of prediction markets in various sectors.
Polymarket has achieved a milestone with 13,800 new markets created in August as it prepares to re-enter the U.S. market following a favorable ruling from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Despite this growth, overall trading volume has declined, with active traders at their lowest levels since last October.