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AI researchers have spent two decades seriously arguing that superintelligent AI could kill everyone, and this isn't a PR stunt — it's a genuine belief that shapes how they work. The author explains what they think could happen and why they keep building AI anyway.
- AI researchers use the term "p(doom)" to discuss extinction probability and have been publishing on this since at least 2008, making it an established part of AI safety culture, not a recent panic.
- Multiple plausible kill mechanisms exist: engineered bioweapons, triggering nuclear war through military AI systems, robot takeover, or unforeseen methods from a superintelligence we can't predict.
- The "race dynamics" problem: if superintelligent AI is inevitable, being first might be the only way to ensure it's aligned with human values, which creates a perverse incentive to build faster rather than safer.