The author argues that most life-changing advances—from infant survival to indoor plumbing—happened before the digital era. He says smartphones, AI, and 3D baby scans feel novel but are refinements of century-old inventions, not signs of a new age of breakthroughs.

The article explores the concept that AI advancements follow a predictable pattern, which the author refers to as “straight lines on graphs.” It discusses the uneven capabilities of AI across different tasks while suggesting that the rate of improvement remains consistent. The author also speculates on the impact of reinforcement learning and compute resources on future AI development.

Progress in software development often leads to complexity and waste rather than clarity and efficiency. As experience grows, the focus shifts from cleverness to simplicity, empathy, and effective communication, emphasizing that successful systems are built on strong relationships and understanding among team members.