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This piece argues that the core driver of growth-stage venture returns is the founder’s ability to spot and act on non-obvious tech opportunities indefinitely. VCs succeed by finding those rare, high-growth founders, giving them freedom and resources, and staying “in the car” for as long as needed.
- Returns in late-stage venture come primarily from a small pool of exceptional founders (e.g., Ghodsi, Collison brothers) who repeatedly turn new tech waves into growth, not from deal structures or valuations
- The old VC playbook of replacing technical founders with "professional" CEOs after Series B was wrong; a16z bet instead on backing founders indefinitely, and that bet largely paid off
- Staying private longer lets elite founders keep making bold, non-consensus bets without public-market pressure to play it safe
- VC firms win by earning enough founder trust to stay "in the car" long-term, supplying scaling resources (hiring, marketing, regulatory help) that early investors typically can't provide