2 links tagged with all of: google-research + quantile-forecasting + foundation-models
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Google introduced TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter time series model that forecasts multiple related data streams simultaneously using a single forward pass. It outperforms competing foundation models on three major benchmarks by incorporating both historical and future-known information (like promotions or weather) to improve prediction accuracy.
- TimesFM-3 handles multivariate forecasting natively—predicting multiple related time series at once while capturing dependencies between them, unlike previous versions limited to single series.
- The model generates entire forecast horizons in one pass using "contiguous patch masking" instead of iterative generation, reducing latency and error accumulation.
- It supports three data types: multiple targets, past-only features, and known-future covariates (like scheduled promotions), letting it incorporate planned events that univariate models miss entirely.
- On Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks, TimesFM-3 ranked first among foundation models for both point and probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
+ time-series-forecasting
foundation-models
+ multivariate-prediction
google-research
quantile-forecasting
Google released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter model that forecasts multiple related time series simultaneously by processing them in a single forward pass. It outperforms competing foundation models on standard benchmarks by learning relationships between different series and incorporating known future events like promotions or weather.
- TimesFM-3 uses a 2D attention mechanism (causal temporal + full variate) that lets the model see patterns across time within a series and correlations between different series at the same time step, enabling it to capture how one series influences another.
- The model generates entire forecast horizons in one pass using "Contiguous Patch Masking" instead of iteratively predicting one step at a time, reducing latency and error accumulation.
- It ranked first on three major benchmarks (Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, Time) for both point and probabilistic forecasting accuracy against recent competitors like Chronos-2 and Toto 2.0.
+ time-series-forecasting
+ multivariate-prediction
foundation-models
google-research
quantile-forecasting