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Census Bureau surveys tracking business AI use from 2023 to 2026 show that even as AI adoption tripled, firms report almost no net employment changes. About 95% of businesses say AI hasn't affected their headcount either way.
- AI adoption jumped from 3.7% of firms in September 2023 to 10% by late 2025 (18% when counting any AI use), but employment impact remained flat: roughly 2-3% reported job increases, 2% reported decreases, and 95%+ reported no change across both survey periods.
- Among firms actually using AI, 44% say it supplements existing work, 10% say it replaced employee tasks, and 11% say it created new tasks—but most firms (64%) made no business changes to implement AI and only 1% hired new AI-skilled workers.
- Task substitution is growing within the small subset of firms where it's happening: the share reporting AI took over "a large number" of tasks jumped from 2.4% to 7.1%, but this group still represents only about 2% of all firms.