Two economists argue that while AI capabilities are exploding, the jump to 10%+ annual GDP growth in the next 15 years is extremely unlikely—not because of the technology, but because of economic frictions like unautomatable jobs, scarce resources, and measurement gaps. They show the math: doubling wealth once in 15 years only requires 4.7% annual growth, which would already be massive.

• Thinking in wealth levels rather than growth rates reveals how extreme double-digit predictions actually are: 16.6% annual growth means being 100x richer in 30 years, not just "a bit better off"
• While standard growth models can theoretically produce explosive AI-driven growth by eliminating labor as a bottleneck, this requires five unrealistic assumptions to all hold simultaneously—including complete economy-wide automation and zero disruptions
• A more reasonable baseline for the next 10-15 years is 4-5% growth, and the authors have bet money that US per capita real GDP growth stays below 15% annually through 2033