If the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, global oil, fertilizer and helium shipments would surge back to normal. Insurance rates might wobble for a day or two, but the bigger shock would hit the U.S. dollar. Right now oil trades in dollars, so any disruption in Hormuz sent everyone scrambling for greenbacks. That pushed the DXY index — which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies — from about 97.6 on February 27 up past 100 in March. But since then it’s slid back to roughly 98.3, even though oil buyers still need dollars. If Hormuz opens, that dollar hungry rush fades. Look at “Liberation Day” last time there was a big swing: the DXY plunged from 104 to 97 in a few months. A repeat today would knock the index toward 91. That means U.S. imports become roughly 7% more expensive. All the talk about tariffs misses this. Courts can overturn levies, but they can’t bring back dollar buying power once it’s on the slide. Behind this is a longer trend: U.S. Treasury bonds have lost their special status since the 2008 financial crisis. A recent paper calls it “decoupling dollar and Treasury privilege.” Investors can now replicate dollar exposure through FX swaps – essentially currency-backed loans – without buying Treasuries. That trend began with 30-year bonds in 2008 and now spans the entire yield curve. American firms have noticed. Apple and Amazon have issued euro-denominated bonds. Google sold a 100-year pound bond. These “reverse Yankee” deals crop up because U.S. government yields look too tempting — firms can’t outbid Uncle Sam. Once demand for dollars softens further, the currency’s value will likely follow Treasury yields down. An open Hormuz could be the trigger.