Commerce in early 2026 is heavily reliant on card-based transactions, with Visa and Mastercard processing 90% of global payments outside China. Their recent earnings reports reveal significant insights into consumer behavior amid economic challenges. Despite rising prices, consumers are maintaining spending levels but are getting less for their money. This trend highlights a disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending patterns, leading to smaller purchases and delayed discretionary spending. Marketers should recognize the growing importance of deals as consumers become more price-conscious and strategic. Mastercard’s CEO pointed out that today’s consumers are savvy, actively seeking the best deals available. Meanwhile, American Express noted that its premium cardholders are still spending, indicating a wealth divide in consumer spending habits. Data from Visa shows that spending growth is concentrated among the wealthiest consumers, while overall economic growth is sluggish. Travel and e-commerce have emerged as bright spots in consumer spending. Mastercard reported a 15% increase in cross-border transaction volume in 2025, aligning with Visa’s observations of strong travel-related spending exceeding pre-COVID levels. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a shift towards e-commerce for holiday shopping, reflecting changing consumer preferences. Overall, payment data suggests that while consumers remain active, they are increasingly selective and segmented in their spending choices.