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Saved February 14, 2026
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This article outlines three strategies for trading on Polymarket, focusing on correlated markets and mispriced odds. It provides step-by-step guidance on executing trades for each strategy, including potential risks and rewards.
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The article outlines three cross-market trading strategies on Polymarket, each with potential high returns. The first strategy, a Calendar Spread involving US-Venezuela military engagement, shows a possible maximum return of $605 to $780 depending on the timing of the event. By buying contracts for both November and December engagements, you hedge your risk. If the event occurs before November, you automatically win the December bet. If it happens in December, you still profit, but if it never happens, you could lose $220.
The second strategy focuses on MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings and margin calls. By betting on both a rise in Bitcoin and a potential margin call, you invest $90 for a chance to earn $410 if either scenario plays out. The market currently undervalues the likelihood of significant movement in MicroStrategy’s position, presenting an opportunity.
The third strategy is about Logical Arbitrage between Google’s AI model and the Gemini scores. Google is projected to have the best AI model by year-end at 88%, yet the market underprices the probability of Gemini scoring over 1600 at just 2%. By investing $20 in the mispriced Gemini market, traders can potentially earn up to $980 if both predictions hold true, exploiting the market’s failure to recognize the connection between these correlated events.
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