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Saved February 14, 2026
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Stablecoin inflows are increasing as traders anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. With liquidity on centralized exchanges dropping, traders are focusing on USD stablecoins, indicating a shift in positioning ahead of potential market movements. Analysts suggest that macro factors could lead to a breakout in the crypto market, despite concerns over upcoming geopolitical events.
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Stablecoin inflows are increasing as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is widely expected to see a 25 basis point cut. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.9% probability of this outcome, while Polymarket puts it at 98.1%. With liquidity on centralized exchanges down to 40% of pre-liquidation levels, traders are concentrating their resources in USD stablecoins, according to OKX Singapore's CEO, Gracie Lin. Wintermute reports that stablecoin supply is rising again, marking the first increase since September, signaling fresh inflows amid favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are seeing a resurgence in perpetual futures funding rates, reflecting renewed interest. Analysts believe the combination of cooling inflation and a potentially dovish Fed could set up a strong Q4 for Bitcoin, historically its best quarter. However, geopolitical tensions, particularly the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, could introduce volatility.
In the altcoin market, there are signs of strength, particularly with higher-beta tokens gaining traction. The TRUMP token has reacted positively amid optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations. Despite this, larger tokens have remained stable, with the altcoin season indicator at just 26 out of 100, showing a preference for Bitcoin. The BTC futures market remains steady with open interest at $26.8 billion, but diverging funding rates suggest uncertainty. Liquidations are notable, with around $514 million in the last 24 hours, primarily affecting ETH and BTC positions.
Technical analysis indicates that the altcoin market cap is at a critical support level, and a breakdown could lead to further declines. The next resistance is 36% higher, while the support is 27% lower than current levels, creating a risky environment for altcoin investments compared to Bitcoin.
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