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Saved February 14, 2026
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The article examines the current state of the AI economy, highlighting a shift from an over-invested infrastructure phase to a pending application phase. It argues that while massive capital expenditures have created a bubble in infrastructure, true value will emerge from innovative applications of AI technology.
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The article examines the current state of the artificial intelligence (AI) economy as it approaches 2026, highlighting a critical shift from the "Installation Phase" to the "Deployment Phase." Over the past few years, massive investments have poured into the infrastructure necessary for AI, primarily through the acquisition of GPUs and the construction of data centers. This period has generated significant paper wealth but is now reaching a saturation point, leading to a bifurcation in the AI economy. The infrastructure layer, characterized by oversupply and declining margins, is contrasted with a burgeoning application layer ripe for value creation.
Using Carlota Perez's framework, the article outlines the historical cycles of technological revolutions, detailing the phases of Installation, Turning Point, and Deployment. The current phase has been marked by a "Frenzy" of speculation and investment, driven by financial capital chasing exponential returns. However, this speculative bubble is expected to burst, creating a "Turning Point" where financial and production capital must realign. The impending regulatory measures, such as the EU AI Act, will play a role in stabilizing the market and facilitating this transition.
As the market shifts to the Deployment Phase, the focus will move from infrastructure development to leveraging existing resources for practical applications. Entrepreneurs will benefit from cheap and abundant infrastructure, enabling them to innovate and drive economic growth. The article suggests that the next decade could usher in a "Golden Age" of AI, where the real value will emerge not from building infrastructure but from applying it effectively across various industries.
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