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Saved February 14, 2026
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The article explores the current state of the software industry, noting a significant drop in revenue multiples and contrasting perspectives from bulls and bears on its future. It discusses the impact of AI on traditional software companies, highlighting concerns about innovation and efficiency while acknowledging ongoing growth opportunities in cloud migrations.
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The article humorously addresses the ongoing debate about the viability of software companies, especially in light of recent market trends. The median revenue multiple for software firms has dropped to 3.6x, the lowest in over a decade. A significant portion of the software index is trading under 3x NTM revenue. Meanwhile, major players like Google Cloud and AWS have shown strong growth, with Google Cloud's revenue growth accelerating to 48% from the previous quarter. Despite this positive news, Nvidia and TSM saw declines, highlighting the mixed signals in the sector.
Earnings reports from companies like ServiceNow and Atlassian show promise, with median quarterly beats and guidance raises, yet the market remains jittery. Bears argue that traditional software firms are in decline, unable to compete with AI advancements and burdened by inefficient operations. They believe that established companies will struggle to innovate and capture future AI revenue. Conversely, bulls contend that classic software solutions still hold significant value, emphasizing the complexities involved in building internal systems compared to outsourcing to established vendors.
The discussion touches on the potential consequences of AI models and how they might reshape the software landscape, pushing traditional systems down the stack and limiting growth potential for legacy companies. While the author acknowledges the challenges ahead, they also point out that classic cloud migrations still offer substantial growth opportunities. Conversations with industry leaders reveal a persistent reliance on traditional software solutions, despite the allure of AI-native alternatives. The article ultimately suggests that while the software industry faces hurdles, it isn't ready to be written off just yet.
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