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Saved February 14, 2026
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The article contrasts the gradual improvement of steam engines and chess computers with the rapid advancement of AI, highlighting the author's personal experience of being quickly surpassed by AI technology. The author reflects on the historical decline of horses in the face of progress and expresses concern over the swift automation of jobs in the AI era.
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The article draws a parallel between the rapid advancements in technology and the decline of horses as a primary means of transportation. After the invention of steam engines in the 1700s, there was a gradual improvement in engine performance that went largely unnoticed by horses for over a century. However, by the mid-20th century, 90% of horses in the United States had vanished, illustrating how sudden technological shifts can render established practices obsolete.
The author shifts focus to the evolution of computer chess, noting that from 1985 to 2025, computers improved at a consistent rate, eventually surpassing human grandmasters. In 2000, a grandmaster could win 90% of the time against a computer, but by 2010, the tables had turned dramatically. This pattern of steady improvement followed by a sudden leap in capability mirrors the current landscape of artificial intelligence.
The author reflects on their experience at Anthropic, where the AI system named Claude rapidly took over tasks that previously required human input. Initially, the author handled 4,000 new-hire questions a month, but after Claude's capabilities improved, that number dropped to 30,000 questions a month being answered solely by the AI. This transition occurred in roughly six months, highlighting the stark difference in how quickly AI can outpace human performance compared to previous technological advancements. The author expresses concern over the speed at which AI is automating tasks, suggesting that the workforce may face a much shorter adjustment period than horses did during the industrial revolution.
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