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Saved February 14, 2026
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A new MIT study shows that AI could replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, equating to $1.2 trillion in wages, particularly in finance, healthcare, and professional services. Using the Iceberg Index, researchers mapped how AI affects various jobs and skills across all states, revealing significant automation potential beyond just tech roles.
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A recent MIT study reveals that artificial intelligence could replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, equating to approximately $1.2 trillion in wages. The research utilized the Iceberg Index, a labor simulation tool developed by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which models the interactions of 151 million U.S. workers. This index simulates how AI impacts various jobs across the country, providing detailed insights for policymakers looking to manage the impending workforce changes.
The findings show that while tech roles have seen the most visible job shifts, they only account for 2.2% of total wage exposure, or about $211 billion. The bulk of the potential impact lies in sectors like human resources, logistics, and finance, often overlooked in automation discussions. The Iceberg Index offers a comprehensive view of skills vulnerable to automation, mapping over 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties. It allows for granular analysis, including county-level data, to understand which skills might become automated and their potential effects on local economies.
States like Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah have begun using the Iceberg Index to inform their AI workforce strategies. Tennessee's AI Workforce Action Plan cites the index, which helps states validate their labor data and explore various policy scenarios. The index challenges the notion that AI risks are confined to coastal tech hubs, illustrating that job displacement could occur across all states, including rural areas. It also provides an interactive environment where states can experiment with different policy approaches and prepare for AI's impact on their economies.
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