The piece examines the possibility of a bubble surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), drawing parallels to historical market bubbles. The author, who lacks expertise in technology but observes market trends, reflects on how enthusiasm for new technology often leads to irrational investor behavior. He notes that bubbles typically emerge when a revolutionary concept captures imagination, prompting widespread investment without considering fundamental value. This cycle often results in significant short- to medium-term losses for investors, despite the potential for long-term gains. The author identifies two types of bubbles: one driven by company behaviors in the AI sector and another by investor psychology. He emphasizes that bubbles arise from excessive optimism rather than technological advancements themselves. Citing past market events, he stresses that the allure of new technology can lead to inflated valuations based on unrealistic expectations. Historical memory shortens, making the same mistakes likely to reoccur. He also explores the concept of "Inflection Bubbles," which are seen as beneficial, in contrast to "Mean-reversion Bubbles" that provide no real advancement. For instance, the sub-prime mortgage bubble didn’t contribute to societal progress, unlike innovations potentially stemming from AI. The author cautions against fixating on labeling a market condition as a bubble and instead suggests focusing on observable behaviors and their implications for investment strategy.