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Ethan Choi discusses the ongoing competition in the AI sector, covering adoption rates, model comparisons, and the race for compute resources. He explores the challenges faced by leading labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, while emphasizing that all major players will likely thrive due to the infinite demand for AI capabilities.
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Ethan Choi, a partner at Khosla Ventures, dives into the current state of the AI race, emphasizing its competitive nature and the critical stakes involved. He shares insights from his experience investing in leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Choi outlines key questions about AI adoption, the performance of major models like GPT 5.2 and Claude 4.5, and the ongoing race for compute resources. He notes a staggering $1.4 trillion in commitments aimed at building 30 gigawatts of compute by 2030, raising concerns about OpenAI's ability to keep pace if revenue growth falters.
Choi highlights significant developments over the past year, including Google's launch of the Gemini 3 model, which surprised the industry. He describes the fluctuating fortunes of major players, with OpenAI facing challenges amid rising competition and financial scrutiny. He argues that the demand for AI and compute is boundless, suggesting that all major labs will thrive despite current fears of commoditization.
In discussing AI adoption, Choi cites a Federal Reserve report estimating only 40% penetration, while Microsoft's study puts it at 16% globally. He identifies the current “departmental” phase of enterprise AI adoption, where AI tools are confined to specific areas like customer support and accounting. Choi believes the real transformation will occur when companies integrate AI across departments, significantly increasing demand for computing power. He critiques the prevailing narrative that Anthropic has already won in the enterprise space, arguing that it's premature to declare winners in this rapidly evolving field.
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