Prediction markets explode in 2025: Inside the Kalshi-Polymarket duopoly and challengers | The Block
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Saved February 14, 2026
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This article discusses the growth of prediction markets in 2025, highlighting the dominance of Kalshi and Polymarket, which together processed over $44 billion in trading volume. It also explores emerging competitors like DraftKings and the importance of trust and transparency in determining market success.
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Prediction markets have surged in popularity in 2025, with Kalshi and Polymarket leading the charge. Together, these platforms processed over $44 billion in trading volume this year, fueled by bets on a range of topics from sports events to economic forecasts. Their growth was bolstered by a legal victory for Kalshi against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which granted them regulatory recognition in the U.S. This has allowed them to expand their offerings and partner with major financial and media players.
However, competition is heating up. Companies like DraftKings and Gemini are entering the space, offering their own prediction markets as features within broader platforms. This shift is changing the competitive landscape, focusing on distribution power rather than just regulatory advantages. Experts believe that the success of these platforms will hinge on their credibility and transparency. Many new entrants might not succeed if they simply replicate existing models without addressing trust issues.
While the expansion of prediction markets looks promising, there are concerns about potential regulatory backlash. Some states view these markets as a form of illegal gambling, which could hinder growth. Experts emphasize that building trust with users will be essential for any platform seeking to establish itself in this evolving landscape. The future of prediction markets might not just depend on scaling up but on how they manage regulatory scrutiny and maintain user confidence.
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