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Saved February 14, 2026
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Glassnode's latest report indicates that current bitcoin market conditions mirror those from early 2022, with rising supply losses and declining demand. Key metrics suggest a risk of top buyer capitulation and weakening interest in ETFs and spot trading. Despite some capital inflow, overall market sentiment remains cautious.
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Glassnode's latest report highlights troubling trends in the Bitcoin market that mirror the early stages of the 2022 bear market. Key metrics indicate rising stress, particularly for top buyers. Since mid-November, Bitcoin's spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile of the supply held by these buyers, now trading around $96,100. As a result, over 25% of Bitcoin is currently underwater, similar to conditions before the market downturn in 2022. The total supply in loss has reached 7.1 million Bitcoin, the highest since early 2022.
Investor sentiment is also weakening. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand has dropped significantly, with IBIT experiencing six consecutive weeks of outflows, totaling more than $2.7 billion. Spot market activity shows a similar decline, with cumulative volume delta trending negative on Binance. On the derivatives side, open interest has decreased, reflecting a reduced appetite for risk following a significant market event in October. Traders are taking a cautious stance, as highlighted by a shift from put options to call options when Bitcoin's price stabilized.
Despite these pressures, capital inflow remains, with a realized cap net change of about $8.69 billion per month, though this is far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion. The market has seen a recent recovery, with Bitcoin climbing back above $70,000 after positive inflation data. Still, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at βextreme fear,β underscoring ongoing anxiety among investors. In the past week alone, $8.7 billion in Bitcoin losses were recorded, which could indicate a capitulation phase and a transfer of Bitcoin to stronger holders.
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