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This article reveals OpenAI's significant spending on inference through Microsoft Azure and details the complexities of their revenue-sharing agreement. The reported inference costs and revenues differ from previously stated figures, suggesting that OpenAI's financial situation may be more complicated than understood. The analysis challenges the accuracy of OpenAI's claimed revenues.
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OpenAI's financial dealings with Microsoft reveal significant discrepancies between reported revenues and what internal documents suggest. OpenAI’s inference spending on Microsoft Azure has skyrocketed, with reported expenses of $5.02 billion in the first half of CY2025, up from $3.76 billion in CY2024. This trend indicates that OpenAI's inference costs have more than doubled in just a year. Yet, despite these high costs, OpenAI's revenues appear to be much lower than previously claimed. For example, Microsoft received $493.8 million in revenue share payments from OpenAI in CY2024, implying OpenAI's revenue was around $2.469 billion—about $1.23 billion less than reported figures.
The article also notes that there are multiple layers to the revenue-sharing agreement between Microsoft and OpenAI. While Microsoft receives 20% of OpenAI's revenue from services like ChatGPT and the API platform, it also invoices OpenAI for inference services. This complex relationship means that OpenAI's financial health is difficult to assess accurately. For the first half of CY2025, Microsoft received $454.7 million, suggesting OpenAI's revenue for that period was at least $2.273 billion—again, significantly lower than the $4.3 billion previously reported.
Discrepancies extend to OpenAI's claimed annual revenue figures. Sam Altman stated that OpenAI's revenue is "well more" than $13 billion, raising questions about how this aligns with the documents viewed. The article suggests that OpenAI may employ non-standard definitions of "annualized" or "recurring" revenue, which complicates comparisons. The financial data presented contradicts many public claims, highlighting a lack of transparency in OpenAI's financial reporting and raising concerns about its business model.
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