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Saved February 14, 2026
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This article analyzes the efficiency of prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, revealing a significant wealth transfer from impulsive bettors (takers) to liquidity providers (makers). The findings highlight a longshot bias, where takers disproportionately favor low-probability bets, leading to consistent losses compared to makers who capitalize on this trend.
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Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the CFTC, attracts traders willing to gamble on low-probability outcomes, often at significantly worse odds than traditional casinos. A recent analysis of 72.1 million trades, totaling $18.26 billion, reveals a systematic wealth transfer in these markets. Takers, those who buy contracts, tend to overpay for affirmative outcomes, while Makers, who sell the contracts, benefit from this behavior. In high-engagement categories like Sports and Entertainment, Takers consistently lose money, while Makers gain, highlighting the disparity in trading outcomes.
The study confirms the longshot bias, where contracts priced low underperform their implied probabilities. For instance, contracts trading at 5 cents win only 4.18% of the time, a clear mispricing compared to expectations. The research breaks down returns by market role, showing that Takers experience negative excess returns across most price levels, while Makers enjoy positive returns. This pattern suggests that the market's inefficiencies primarily hurt impulsive Takers, who disproportionately favor optimistic bets.
The analysis goes further by examining whether the Maker-Taker gap is merely a result of spread capture or reflects deeper market dynamics. Results indicate that maker returns vary depending on whether they buy YES or NO contracts, with NO buyers outperforming YES buyers. The gap in returns also differs across categories, with Sports and Crypto showing larger discrepancies than Finance or Weather markets. This suggests that less informed participants are more prevalent in certain categories, leading to greater inefficiencies and wealth transfers.
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