Timothy Chambers lays out his predictions for the open social web in 2026, highlighting trends and developments worth tracking. He anticipates that Bluesky will surpass 60 million registered users, driven by ongoing dissatisfaction with X (formerly Twitter) and enhancements to its platform. The ActivityPub Fediverse, excluding Threads, is expected to reach 15 million registered users, with monthly active users leveling off around 2-3 million. Threads will continue to grow, likely exceeding 500 million monthly active users, although its federation will remain largely partial, with full two-way federation not expected this year. Chambers makes several medium-risk predictions, such as the shift to “opt-out” for Bluesky users bridging to ActivityPub, which could ease discussions around interoperability. He expects that at least one independent implementation of the ATProto stack will gain traction, indicating the protocol's potential to operate beyond Bluesky. Mastodon’s sustainability will improve, bolstered by increased hosting revenue and additional grant funding. He believes Bluesky PBC will secure further funding and clarify its business model, steering away from advertising. On the riskier side, chambers predicts a significant media outlet will adopt ActivityPub, demonstrating the benefits of federation, which could inspire others to follow suit. He foresees a major news organization leaving X entirely, opting instead for Bluesky or the Fediverse as its primary distribution channel. Additionally, he expects a European government to establish a presence on both Bluesky and the Fediverse, signaling a shift towards digital sovereignty. Finally, developments like the integration of Nostr, ATProto, and ActivityPub could simplify the landscape, while the AltStore may challenge Apple’s App Store by integrating decentralized features.