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Saved February 14, 2026
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The article discusses the emergence of probability graphs as a unique visual format for conveying narratives in politics, sports, and finance. These graphs effectively illustrate changing expectations versus outcomes, but their use has largely been limited to specific contexts. The piece also hints at potential future developments in storytelling formats.
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The article highlights the emergence of “probabilities changing over time” graphs, which gained popularity in the mid-2010s during elections, sports events, and financial markets. These visual formats effectively convey narratives of triumph or failure by illustrating expected outcomes versus actual results. They function like memes, packing complex stories into easily shareable images. However, their application has been limited to specific domains due to the necessity of widely accepted predictive odds.
Apart from the focus on these graphs, the article touches on broader trends expected to shape the landscape in 2025. One key prediction is the decline of Google's search monopoly as AI-driven, ad-free, and conversational search engines become more prevalent. Another point addresses the potential for new software in compliance, suggesting that LLMs could simplify labor-intensive processes in that sector.
The piece also emphasizes the challenges startups face with pricing strategies, especially in the B2B fintech space, where multiple monetization paths complicate decisions. Founders are advised to prioritize simplicity in their pricing models. Lastly, it discusses equity compensation for executives, stressing the importance of vesting strategies that retain talent and encourage performance, particularly through double-trigger vesting linked to employment and liquidity events.
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