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Saved February 14, 2026
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The article discusses how AI is disrupting software revenue, affecting the debt markets tied to software companies. With significant leverage in both software and infrastructure, any downturn in expectations could severely impact these investments, as evidenced by recent drops in stock prices and writedowns in private debt funds.
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Software companies are increasingly reliant on leveraged infrastructure, and the rise of AI is significantly impacting this dynamic. In Q1 2025, Business Development Company (BDC) assets reached $475 billion, with software making up 23% of Ares Capital's portfolio. Recently, shares of Blue Owl, Ares, and KKR fell over 9% as UBS estimated that 35% of BDC portfolios could face disruption from AI technologies. With AI capable of performing tasks like coding and legal research more cost-effectively than traditional software, the recurring revenue that supports many loans is endangered. For instance, Anthropic's announcement of autonomous legal agents caused LegalZoom and Thomson Reuters stocks to drop 12%.
The leverage situation extends into the infrastructure sector as well. Oracle plans to raise $50 billion for cloud expansion, financing about half of it through debt. CoreWeave is borrowing 87% of a $7.5 billion expansion, while Meta’s Hyperion data center project is even more leveraged, with 91.5% of its funding coming from debt. Blackstone's BCORE has recently provided significant funding to various data center projects, and allocations for data center infrastructure in BDCs grew 33% year-over-year in Q2 2025. However, the influx of private credit—expected to reach $750 billion for AI infrastructure by 2030—is under pressure. Factors like GPU lifespan, which Google architects say is limited to 1-3 years despite a theoretical 6-year lifespan, add to the uncertainty.
Oracle's credit-default swaps have tripled since September, even though the company generates $15 billion in annual cash flow. Meanwhile, AMD's first-quarter revenue guidance missed expectations by $300 million, leading to a 9% drop in stock price despite a 32% annual growth rate. Small discrepancies in performance forecasts can lead to significant stock price adjustments. Distress signals are also appearing in private debt markets; BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. reported a 19% writedown in its fund, which invests in middle-market companies, indicating that some investments have lost 81% of their fair value. As reliance on debt in software and AI increases, any shifts in market expectations could trigger more substantial financial repercussions.
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